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I am dreading the loses we will take in the battle for Fallujah, but it is a battle we cannot avoid. StrategyPage.com has a good analysis of what we can expect for the coming conflict.
Fighting in Fallujah will be a war of surprise and ambush. Whoever first figures out what the other side is up to will have an edge. The smart money is on the Americans. For while the "insurgents" have received lots of positive press for their unequal struggle, they have by far gotten the worst of it. In thousands of little battles, the anti-government forces are almost always defeated. Most of the time they just flee, but all too often they are killed or captured. Coalition intelligence officers know who they are fighting, and how they fight. This information is rapidly passed around and refined. The anti-government forces are a loose coalition of Sunni Arabs who want Saddam, the Baath Party or Sunni religious leaders running the country. Most of these men are Iraqis, with a minority (less than five percent) of foreigners who came to Iraq with more eagerness than combat experience. Many of the fighters are there for a paycheck, others are caught up in the excitement of it all. Few are professional soldiers. Enthusiasm without discipline and training just gets you killed in combat. Fallujah will see dozens of Americans killed, but the death toll on the other side will be much higher. We know that because this battle has been fought many times before. Not many surprises, although some intrepid reporters will try to invent a few.
May God hold those brave valorous marines in the palm of his hand.
Posted by Ted at November 6, 2004 2:37 PM