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In an email discussion with the Vorlon Brother, he asked what my crystal ball indicated. I responded with my pat answer, I if I could predict the future I would be worth millions of dollars.
But as I think about his question and my glib answer, I think I may have inadequately responded to his question.
While one cannot predict the future and I say, only God knows the future. On can however may judgments of potential outcomes. I believe we live in, what appears to us mere mortals, a random event universe.
If I hold a rock, I can estimate with an extremely high probability of what will happen if I just drop the rock. However if I throw that rock, the probability of events changes and becomes less certain. Will it hit a window, hit a person or only hit the ground?
Also the further into the future on looks, the less we can accurately estimate the probabilities. Even if we know the probabilities, we cannot predict with certainty the exact outcome. Every day when get out of bed, we are rolling the dice.
If I buy a stock, I’m gambling the price will go up. But I always have my stop loss order, in case I guess wrong.
Let me talk about the war in Iraq as I think this was a bit of the underlying discussion with the Vorlon Brother. He teaches at a major university so I would expect his viewpoint to be to the left of mine. I don’t have a problem with that. I have long believed that Patton was right when he said, “If everyone is thinking alike, someone’s not thinking.”
Will we ultimately be successful in Iraq? I don’t know. As I say, only God knows the future. That said I can still estimate probabilities of events. If we just say, “We won, we’re leaving” and then we leave. I would expect I very high probability (greater than 75%) the terrorists would also claim victory and they would say, “The US has proven what we already knew all along. The Americans don’t have the stomach for a long fight. We have won and the cowardly retreat of American forces shows it.”
What do I see as the probability of our ultimate success in Iraq? Right now I’m putting that at 50%. Part of the reason for the low percentage is the current political climate in the US. With the three-rule in play, Americans are growing weary of the war and Bush’s opponents are taking every opportunity to denigrate our efforts there and paint them as negatively as possible. When it comes to ultimate success in Iraq, in my mind I see a coin suspended in midair very slowly flipping end-over-end.
What do I see as the probability of success in my personal condition? Right know that is just a bit too close to do any probability estimates. At the moment I prefer not to consider the possibility of failure. I am focusing all my energy into the positive. I remember a quote I saw that sort of sums up my current thought pattern, “If the goal is wanted badly enough, the facts don’t matter.”
Posted by The Vorlon at April 19, 2006 10:21 AM